The Seattle Mariners have just taken the measure of the New York Yankees on Labor Day, 2007, with a 7-1 victory, ending their nine game losing streak in the process. The Yankees trail the division leading Red Sox by 6 ½ games, pending the outcome of the Toronto-Boston game tonight. The Red Sox magic number to clinch the division title is down to 19.
Twenty Four More Games for the Yankees
The Yankees are 76-62, which means that they have 24 games remaining. The Sox are 82-55, leaving them with 25 remaining games. The numbers do not lie, at least not in this case, and despite Benjamin Disraeli’s famous "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
If the Yankees Go 18-6
If the inconsistent Yankees win 18 games, they will finish at 94-68. For the Red Sox to win 95 games, they need another 13 wins, which means that they can go 13-12 and win the division, or get at least a tie statistically if they go 12-13. Of course, the chances that the Yankees will win 18 of their final 24 games are slim and none, not with their starting rotation.
The Yankees play Seattle two more times, Boston three times, Toronto seven times, Tampa Bay three times, Baltimore six times, and Kansas City three times. It is foolish to try to predict the outcomes of baseball games, which is why betting sites make so much money, but based purely on statistics and supposed abilities, the Yankees should win about 65 percent of the games, which translates to about 16 wins. The division race is over.
Top Three Yankees' Starters
The Yankees top three starters, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, and Roger Clemens have pitched a combined 445 2/3 innings. They have allowed 466 hits, which is not good, and they have a combined 3.93 ERA, which in today’s game, is decent, but consistency has been a problem. Today, Clemens allowed 5 runs in 4 innings. In his last start against Boston, he allowed only 1 run in 6 innings. Yesterday, Andy Pettitte allowed 5 runs in 6 1/3 innings. Before that, Boston scored 3 runs in 7 innings against him. Wang has been the most consistent among the three.
Mussina and Hughes
In the playoffs, a team needs four starters. How much does Mike Mussina have left, and what can be expected of Philip Hughes? Based on their pitching performances in August, that is a huge question mark. If the Yankees make the playoffs, they may be a dangerous team because of their three starters. By the same token, if the Yankees make the playoffs, they may be a very beatable team for the same reason.
