Webb and Haren Could Be a Problem
They Could Match Santana and Maine in the Playoffs
Brandon Webb and Dan Haren give Arizona two top pitchers who could steal a playoff round from a better team.
The Mets top two pitchers are Johann Santana and John Maine, although it is possible that the sometimes brilliant but sometimes erratic Oliver Perez may rank ahead of Maine. Arizona's top two pitchers are Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. Webb won 18 games, started 34, worked 236 1/3 innings, allowing 209 hits, struck out 194 batters, and had 156 ERA+ in 2007. He can certainly stand up to Santana in any given game.
Haren is the Equal of Maine or Perez
Haren, a former Cardinal, won 15 games for the offensively challenged A's last year, pitching 222 2/3 innings, allowing 214 hits, striking out 192 batters, and finishing with a 137 ERA+. Haren is at least the equal of Maine or Perez. If the Mets meet Arizona in the first round of the 2008 playoffs, all they need is split in the first two games, which will probably be in New York, because the rest of their starters are better than Arizona’s.
Either Oliver Perez or John Maine is the Mets' third pitcher, which gives them an advantage over Arizona's Micah Owings, who started 27 games, winning 8 and losing 8, with a 4.70 ERA (109 ERA+) last season. He pitched 152 2/3 innings, which was a little under his lifetime minor league total.
Two Future Hall of Famers are Question Marks
The fourth starter for both the Mets and Arizona are future Hall of Famers. Pedro is coming off surgery and could wind up as the number 2 starter, but he is a question mark. Randy Johnson is an even greater queston mark. Six months ago, Johnson underwent back surgery. When he was with the Yankees, he showed flashes of being Randy Johnson, but he invariably had a bad inning in which he was hit hard. He was also the beneficiary of excellent run support when with New York, which will not be the case in Arizona. At age 44, Johnson cannot be counted on to do much. With the exception of another aged Yankees’ pitcher who has been in the news recently, there have not been too many hard throwers who excel in their mid forties.
Arizona's Fourth Starter
It is likely that Doug Davis, not Randy Johnson, will be Arizona's fourth starter. The lefty Davis, who won 13 games last year, allowed 211 hits and 95 walks in 192 2/3 innings. El Duque is much more effective when he is healthy, but with Mike Pelfrey, who has been relatively ineffective during his time with the Mets, waiting in the wings, El Duque may not be a starter. EDGE IN STARTING PITCHING: METS BY A SMALL MARGIN.
The Bullpens
Arizona has a strong bullpen. With Tony Pena, newly acquired Chad Qualls, and Juan Cruz from the right side, Doug Slaten, returning from knee surgery from the left side, and recently announced closer Brandon Lyon, there shouldn't be any significant problems in finishing games. Mets relief corps consists of Aaron Heilman, Jorge Sosa, and probably Duaner Sanchez and Joe Smith from the right side, and Pedro Feliciano and Scott Schoenweis from the left side, with Billy Wagner closing. EDGE: METS
Arizona Has a Better Chance in the First Round
The Mets should beat Arizona in the playoffs, but Arizona has a better chance of winning the first round than the second. In the first round, they could go with three pitchers, with the possiblity of Webb and Haren pitching twice. In a seven game series, Arizona would have to go to their fourth and/or fifth starters, and that gives the Mets a huge advantage. Arizona may not make the playoffs, considering that Los Angeles and San Diego should do well, and almost everyone considers the National League 2007 pennant winner an afterthought, which is a mistake.
Arizona at Sportsline
Mets at Sportsline
