The Padres' Pitching
San Diego Has a Great Starter and Many Questions
Jake Peavy led the National League in 2007 with 19 wins, a 2.54 ERA, a 159 ERA+, 240 strikeouts, 9.67 strikeouts per 9 innings, and a 1.061 WHIP. Jake is a pretty good pitcher. Chris R. Young won only 9 games last season and worked only 173 innings because he is injury prone. He produced a sub-par second half in 2007 after suffering a muscle pull, but Young still allowed the fewest hits per 9 innings of any NL pitcher, struck out just under one batter per inning pitched, was second to Peavy with a 1.098 WHIP, and finished with a 3.12 ERA. The duo compares favorably to any team’s top two starters, including the Mets’ Johan Santana and John Maine or Oliver Perez, as well as to Arizona’s Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, but after Peavy and Young, the Padres’ have problems.
Maddux and Wolfe v. Perez and Pedro
Greg Maddux led the 2007 Padres with 34 starts. Greg epitomizes the wily veteran who gets by on guile and guts. In 198 innings, he allowed 221 hits with a 4.14 ERA and 98 ERA+. He is a weak third starter who cannot be ranked ahead of either John Maine or Oliver Perez.
Lefty Randy Wolfe might be the Padres’ fourth starter if he is healthy, but he has had elbow and shoulder problems most of his career. A few years ago, it was rumored that Randy would go to the Yankees for Andy Pettitte, which is an indication of his ability when he is healthy. The Mets’ fourth starter will probably be Pedro, but he may turn out to be the Mets’ number 2. Pedro is coming off surgery and for that reason will be used judiciously.
The Fifth Starter: El Duque or Pelfrey Over Germano
Randy Wolfe and Pedro are question marks and only time will tell what happens. They must be rated as even, but either can carry a pitching staff when not hampered by injuries, although comparing a healthy Pedro with Wolfe is ridiculous. Pedro’s problem is that he no longer is 29 years old.
Justin Germano is the Padres’ fifth starter and he never will be more than the last starter. He has had a checkered minor league career with a few good seasons, but he doesn’t frighten major league hitters. The Mets’ Orlando Hernandez or Mike Pelfrey gets the edge over Germano, but San Diego has a sleeper who, if he wakes up, can change the balance of power in the league.
Prior is Lurking
Good old Mark Prior is lurking on the disabled list. He will not be ready until May at the earliest ,after missing all of last season. The Padres expect nothing from Prior, but having him around can be lethal for the opposition if he ever gets healthy and becomes something resembling the pitcher he used to be.
Solid Bullpens
The Padres’ bullpen is solid. Led by Mets-hater Heath Bell (6-4, 2.02), former Red Sox prospect Cla Meredith (5-6, 3.50), and Kevin Cameron (2-0, 2.79) from the right side, and Justin Hampson (2-3, 2.70) likely from the left side , the seventh and eighth innings will usually be well-pitched. Trevor Hoffman must still be rated among the better closers despite some late season problems in 2007.
The Mets’ relief corps consists of Aaron Heilman, Jorge Sosa, and probably Duaner Sanchez and Joe Smith from the right side, and Pedro Feliciano and Scott Schoenweis from the left side, with Billy Wagner closing. Heilman v. Bell is even, but after that, the Mets get a slight edge, but only if Sanchez can return to form.
Is Maddux the Difference?
Jake Peavy and Johan Santana are pick ‘em, as are a healthy Chris Young and either Maine or Perez, but Maine or Perez must be rated ahead of Maddux. If Wolfe is healthy, he may be better than Maine or Perez. Greg Maddux must be considered the weak link with respect to the playoffs for the Padres, but it is not wise to go against any form of Greg Maddux, as many teams, much to their chagrin, have discovered.
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