The NL Champs Lack Pitching
The Rockies Will Not Make the Playoffs in 2008
Yes, the Rockies really are the defending 2007 National League champions. After winning 21 of their final 22 regular season games to qualify for the playoffs, the Rockies won the pennant and then suffered an ignominious World Series defeat when the Red Sox swept them. Acknowledging that anything can happen in a baseball season, the chances that the Rockies will get to the 2008 World Series are slim and none unless they pay their way in.
Baseballs in a Humidor
It is difficult to assess Rockies’ baseball because the baseballs used in their home games are doctored. No, not the way all baseballs have probably been modified by putting a little rabbit into them. Baseballs used a the Rockies’ home field are stored in a humidor, which has resulted in a dramatic decrease in offense at Coors Field, but despite lower scoring games, the Rockies still lack solid starting pitching.
Bill O'Dell and Lefty Grove
Ace Jeff Francis was 17-9 with a 4.22 ERA in 2007. In 634 2/3 lifetime innings, he has allowed 691 hits with a 1.428 WHIP and a 103 ERA+. The Mets’ ace, Johan Santana, in a league with the designated hitter, has allowed 1068 hits in 1308 2/3 lifetime innings with a 1.094 WHIP and a 141 ERA+. Comparing Francis to Santana is like comparing Billy O’Dell to Lefty Grove.
Aaron Cook Has Character, But Can He Pitch?
Injury-prone Aaron Cook should be the Rockies’ second starter. He just signed a four-year, $34 million contract after going 8-7 with a 4.12 ERA last year. Cook has pitched 718 1/3 career innings, allowing 834 hits and striking out 274 batters, but despite being extremely hittable and having a lifetime 4.47 ERA and 109 ERA+, Cook has character. General manager Dan O’Dowd has said “We like him as a person. He's a tremendous person. He's a count-on guy. I don't think you can ever have enough character.” Yep, O’Dowd would rather have Aaron Cook than Bob Gibson.
The Third Starter and the Rest
Josh Fogg is in Cincinnati, which makes Ubaldo Jimenez the likely third Rockies’ starter. The 6’4” Ubaldo has put on 15 pounds, which is described as muscle on the Rockies’ website. In 2007, he started 15 games, going 4-4 with a 4.28 ERA. In his last two minor league seasons, the 24-year-old had ERA’s of 5.06 and 5.85. He has a great fast ball and a good slider, but he must gain control of at least some of his pitches and learn how to work on hitters. The other Rockies’ starters will come from a group consisting of Jason Hirsch, who came over from the Astros and suffered a broken leg last season, youngster Franklin Morales, and journeymen Mark Redman, and Kip Wells. It is a group that does not inspire confidence.
Mets Have the Edge in Starters
The Mets’ have a huge edge in starting pitching over the Rockies. After Santana, the Mets’ have two pitchers, John Maine and Oliver Perez, who clearly are preferable to Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jiminez, and despite question marks, Pedro is a better choice than Jason Hirsch, Mark Redmond, or Kip Wells. Franklin Morales might surprise, but so too might Pedro and the Mets have El Duque and Mike Pelfrey as well.
Solid Relief for Both Teams
Both the Rockies and the Mets have good bullpens, but the Mets’ is better. The Rockies have former closer Brian Fuentes as the set up man, and Fuentes is good as well as left handed. Manny Corpas closes, and after taking over the job, he saved19 of 20 games. The Rockies have added Luis Vizcaino, who always seems to do less than he should, but who is a valuable pitcher. Matt Herges, like Aaron Cook, is a man of character, admitting to the use of performance enhancing substances after being named in the report.
The Mets’ relief corps consists of Aaron Heilman, Jorge Sosa, and probably Duaner Sanchez and maybe Joe Smith from the right side, with Pedro Feliciano and Scott Schoenweis from the left side. The veteran Billy Wagner is one of the top closers in the game. The Mets’ bullpen has more experience and gets a slight edge, but it is possible that the Rockies’ pen could, if everything clicks, become dominant.
In the playoffs,
Mets Would Win
the Mets should have little trouble with the Rockies, but time will show that the Rockies are not going to make the playoffs in 2008. They lack depth and quality in starting pitching, and that is going to cost them dearly. The 1991-1992 Braves will remain the last National League pennant winner to repeat.
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