The Best Division in Baseball
An Analysis of Major League wins and losses from 2003-2007
One of the most contested opinions in baseball is which league, division and team is the best each year. In any year, fortunes rise and fall. In 2007, even the Yankees have fallen on hard times. An analysis of won/loss records shows that there is a consistent standard of excellence in baseball, and it is a bit of surprise.
Methodology
A compilation was made of won/loss records for the four and one half years 2003 to 2007 (through the all-star break) and totaled by division. This shows the relative strength of each division, since intradivisional games (games between teams in the division) will cancel each other out.
Each team played 19 games each year against division rivals. Since there are different numbers of teams in division, in a 162 game schedule, there will be from 67 to 105 games against non-division foes. The resulting measurement of games over .500 (GOF) demonstrates how well the division plays overall.
Results
The clear leader among the divisions is a surprise. The American League West is clearly the best division under these criteria with 113 GOF for the 4 ½ year period. It is the only division to have more wins than losses in each year.
The second best division was the National League West with 84 GOF, primarily to big years in 2003 and 2005, and consistent play in later years. The American League Central, considered a powerhouse division recently, suffers from the 119 loss season by Detroit in 2003.
The AL East, with the Yankees and Boston, shows up as also-rans, begging the question as to whether their records are the result of beating up on Tampa Bay and Baltimore, with little impact on rest of the major leagues.
The AL West is the only division with four teams, but there seems little indication that this is a factor in its consistent performance.
Other Factors
A case can be made that the strength of a division should not be measured by all the teams, as one lowly team can bring down the division, as Detroit did with 119 losses in 2003. Removing the record of the worst team in each division each year, (which could ungraciously be called the Tampa Bay rule) has little impact on the results. The AL West still has the highest GOF.
Of course, the next question would be which division is the worst in baseball. Again, the results are consistent, and the answer is the NL Central. This is probably less surprising, although the Cardinals won the World Series in 2006. Indeed, no AL West team has won the World Series during this period.
So, the question becomes, which is the better indicator, collection team strength as measured by GOF, or World Series victories? The reader can make up his own mind on that.
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