The Best World Series Matchups
Using Stats to Rank the Greatest Fall Classics Since World War II
The New York Yankees defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2009 World Series. However, if Derek Jeter and company's opponent had instead been the Dodgers, that matchup would have constituted one of the best, on paper, since World War II. Building upon the work of Eddie Epstein, statistics can be used to determine the most dominant baseball teams to meet each other in the World Series over the last 60 years.
Sabermetrics
In past decades, a baseball team's seasonal success was looked at only within the framework of traditional statistics. Bill James started to analyze baseball stats in nontraditional ways in the late 1970's. This eventually led to the new field of sabermetrics, which is the "mathematical and statistical analysis of baseball records," according to Professor Jim Albert of Bowling Green State University.
Rob Neyer and Eddie Epstein are two prominent baseball writers who followed Bill James. They wrote a book called Baseball Dynasties: The Greatest Teams of All Time, which outlined a new way to rate great teams. They used standard deviation to compare teams to their contemporaries in both runs scored and runs allowed.
Baseball Statistics
Standard deviation is a statistical measure of the dispersion, or range, of data in relation to the average. A z-score measures how many standard deviations a number varies from the mean. Epstein called his new ranking the SD score. The SD score and z-score are different terms for the same concept.
If the league average, or mean, of runs scored was 600, and the standard deviation was 100 runs, a team that scored 700 runs would have a +1.00 SD score. This is calculated by subtracting the mean from the raw score and then dividing by the standard deviation. A team that scored 600 runs would have an SD score of 0. A team that scored 500 runs would have an SD score of -1.00.
The authors of Baseball Dynasties surmised that anecdotal methods of team evaluation always failed to put success in context. Teams must be compared to their peers using standard deviation distribution in order to put teams from different eras on the same footing. The distribution of team success has narrowed over the years, making a simple ratio-type comparison not as effective as the SD score in differentiating team greatness.
Run Differential And Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem
Epstein added the SD scores for runs scored and runs allowed to calculate the overall SD score. An SD score of +1.50 for each category, or +3.00 overall, was considered an excellent SD score. Adding standard deviations in this manner is illogical, according to Alan Shank, who said a single focus on run differential would make more sense. Run differential is highly correlated with winning, as proven by Bill James' invention, the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball.
Building upon the work of James, Epstein, and Neyer, here are the top ten World Series since World War II. Some great teams are not on this list and some classic World Series are absent, too. This list only includes Series where both participants had at least a +1.50 SD score, or z-score, in run differential during the regular season before they met in the Series.
With the winner listed first, here is the list in chronological order with the SD score for run differential for that season in parentheses.
The Best World Series
- 1946 Cardinals (+1.57) vs. Red Sox (+1.56)
- 1953 Yankees (+1.48) vs. Dodgers (+1.62)
- 1957 Braves (+1.74) vs. Yankees (+1.52)
- 1958 Yankees (+1.76) vs. Braves (+1.65)
- 1968 Tigers (+2.03) vs. Cardinals (+1.88)
- 1971 Pirates (+2.12) vs. Orioles (+2.01)
- 1974 Athletics (+2.12) vs. Dodgers (+1.75)
- 1976 Reds (+1.77) vs. Yankees (+1.72)
- 1989 Athletics (+1.65) vs. Giants (+1.52)
- 2004 Red Sox (+1.80) vs. Cardinals (+1.55)
The 1971 Fall Classic constituted the "best" one since World War II, at least according to combined run differential SD scores. Five Series have gone the distance, while three ended up as sweeps, like when the Cincinnati Reds crushed Billy Martin's Yankees in 1976. The American League has won 60% of these Top Ten contests.
What Makes A Great World Series?
There are many criteria for what constitutes a great World Series, just like there are myriad ways to define the greatest baseball teams of all time. Years like 1975, 1991, and 2001, while not on this list, had stirring World Series. On the other hand, besides the earthquake, who outside the Bay Area remembers much about the 1989 Series? To many people, success during the regular season means nothing unless a World Championship accompanies it.
Seasonal success does not equal success in the playoffs. The 2001 Mariners had an SD score of +2.14 and won a record 116 games, but did not even make it to the Series. Likewise, the Twins had a -0.20 SD score in 1987 and won it all. Of the ten Series listed above, the team with the higher SD score won nine times.
As baseball has added more tiers to the playoffs, it has become increasingly difficult for teams who dominate during the season to make it to the World Series. Things like luck, injuries, or momentum can derail a great team, resulting in a Series that has squads with lesser SD scores.
The Atlanta Braves had an average SD score of +1.63 from 1991 to 1999, but only won the Series once during that span. SD scores can help baseball fans calculate the best teams in history, those that displayed greatness during the regular season. Sometimes, with a little luck, these great teams even get to meet in the World Series to decide the champion.
(By the way, if the 2009 Yankees and Dodgers had met in the World Series, they would have had SD scores of +1.75 and +1.69, respectively. The Phillies SD score for 2009 was +1.11)
World Series Champions
|
The New York Yankees
|
Alex Rodriguez
|
Latest Articles