The Philadelphia Phillies will continue their quest for a repeat, while the Los Angeles Dodgers hope to take another step in winning their first World Series title since 1988, as the National League Chamionship Series kicks off later tonight. Both teams appear to be evenly matched, but there are five questions that will go a long way in determining the winner.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Season Series - Dodgers lead 4-3
1. Who Has The Advantage In The Starting Rotation?
The Dodgers have a strong rotation. Game 1 starter Clayton Kershaw had an excellent year ranking 5th in the league with a 2.79 ERA and 11th in the league with 185 strikeouts. Of some concern, though, is the fact that he was third in the league in walks with 91 and was 0-2 vs. the Phillies this year. Vicente Padilla has pitched great since being acquired by the Dodgers including throwing 7 shutout innings in the NLDS vs. the Cardinals. Hiroki Kuroda had a solid season including pitching 6 shutout innings vs. the Phillies in one start this year. Randy Wolf had a career year and should be motivated facing his old team. Like Kershaw, he is left-handed and that should help neutralize some of the Phillies strong left-hand hitting.
As for the Phillies, the fact that Cliff Lee had to pitch a second time in the NLDS means he will be unavailable until game 3 in this series. That leaves Cole Hammels, who has had a mostly disappointing year to start game 1. Hammels had an ERA of almost 5 on the road this year, but he did pitch well against the Dodgers in two starts. Then the Dodgers will have to decide between Joe Blanton, A.J. Happ, and perhaps Pedro Martinez for their game 2 start. Happ really struggled against Colorado and Pedro is not the pitcher he used to be so the likely choice will be Joe Blanton. Blanton had a solid year but his numbers in October have not been pretty. Cliff Lee, as mentioned earlier, will get the game 3 call. Lee had an up and down year but pitched great in two starts in the NLDS. The Game 4 starter is a big question mark.
The Dodgers appears to be a little deeper 1-4, so they get the edge here.
2. Can The Phillies Win Games That Are Decided By The Bullpen?
The Dodgers have the best bullpen in the league with the likes of Ronald Belisario, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jeff Weaver, George Sherrill and their great closer Jonathan Broxton. As for the Phillies, lefty Scott Eyre has had a great year and been very reliable against lefties. One or two of their starters will likely pitch out of the bullpen and that is a risky proposition. Ryan Madson has a solid year out of the bullpen and even been the closer at times. The key, though is Brad Lidge. He had a miserable season but did save 2 games in the NLDS. Was it a fluke? Or is he back?
Still don't trust Lidge in a big spot against a very good Dodger lineup and overall the Phillies bullpen is not nearly as deep as the Dodgers so the Phillies will have trouble winning games decided by the bullpen.
3. Is Manny Back?
Manny Ramirez is the type of player who can dominate a series. He has had an inconsistent year this year which was marred by his drug suspension. After a quiet first two games against the Cardinals, he broke out in game 3 going 3-5 with 2 RBIs. Was this a sign of things to come? Manny has always hit well against left-handers and the Phillies top two, Hammels and Lee, are both lefty, so Manny's production against them will be crucial to the Dodgers success.
Manny loves the spotlight and the feeling here is that he will have a big series.
4. Will Jimmy Rollins Be A Catalyst?
Jimmy Rollins has had a disappointing year, hitting just .250 with an OBP of under .300, pitiful for a leadoff hitter. Against the Rockies he hit just .263 and scored just one run. He needs to get on base in this series to set the table for the big boppers behind him. That will also allow him to use his speed to manufacture runs, something that is crucial in the playoffs, where runs are often at a premium.
Rollins is another guy who loves the spotlight. He is very dangerous in the clutch and is poised to break out in this series.
5. Will The Phillies Power Be Able To Carry Them To Victory?
The Phillies led the league in home runs this year. They had a whopping four guys who all hit over 30 home runs (Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez). Even guys like Victorino and Rollins at the top of the order can hit big home runs. In the playoffs, where it is hard to put together rallies against good pitching, being able to hit the ball out of the ballpark is critical and can turn the momentum of the game in an instant.
The Phillies will hit a few longballs but the Dodgers have the best pitching staff in the league and they don't give up many home runs. So, expect the Phillies power to be corralled somewhat.
Final Analysis:
The Dodgers have the deeper pitching staff and they should be able to somewhat neutralize the Phillies great offense. They also have the home field advantage and they are 52-31 at home this year, including the playoffs.
Prediction: Dodgers in 6
