Arizona’s Brandon Webb, Milwaukee’s CC Sabathia, New York’s Johan Santana, and San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum have emerged to be the leading candidates for the 2008 NL Cy Young Award. In part three of this series, Johan Santana’s 2008 campaign will be reviewed.
In 2007 the New York Mets had one of the most historic collapses in the history of baseball. The Mets had a seven-game division lead with 17 games left to play, and lost the division to the Philadelphia Phillies. After failing to reach the playoffs, Mets GM Omar Minaya felt that he had to make a move to get his team over the hump. In what many consider the biggest trade of the off-season, Minaya traded four players to the Minnesota Twins for Johan Santana.
To finalize the trade, the Mets signed Santana to the richest contract ever given to a pitcher. Santana is under contract with the Mets until 2013, has an option for 2014, and is guaranteed $137.5 million for his services. The Mets entered the new season with a new ace to help get them into the playoffs and into the World Series, but even with Santana, the Mets failed to make it into October. Santana did his part to help the Mets, but a shaky bullpen and inconsistent hitting proved to be the Mets downfall.
Why Santana Will Win
Johan Santana maintained his reputation as one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball. Santana had a solid record going 16-7 with a 2.53 ERA in 34 starts this season. That 2.53 was tops not only in the NL, but in all of MLB. Santana could have easily had as many 22 wins if the Mets bullpen could have preserved his leads. Santana also reached the 200 strikeout plateau by striking out 206 batters this season, ranking him third in the NL. Additionally, Santana served as a spark for his team down the stretch by pitching extremely well in must win games. Santana also pitched on three days rest in the regular season for the first time in his career to keep the Mets playoff chances alive. Santana did his part by recording a complete game shutout against the Florida Marlins.
Why Santana Won’t Win
Santana put up great numbers, but his greatest hindrance will be his low winning percentage. Santana’s .696 winning percentage is lowest amongst these four candidates based on stats accumulated in the NL (CC Sabathia as a lower winning percentage, when his AL and NL numbers are combined). has a lower Santana’s 16 victories ranks him only seventh in the NL. Of the four pitchers being examined, Santana is the only pitcher to record a losing month while pitching in the NL. Santana also gave up 23 home runs, the most home runs of this group. Santana had a great season, but it just might not be good enough for the voters.
Chances Santana Will Win
Santana’s chances of winning are not that good. Many of the voters look at wins and winning percentage as the two most important aspects of a candidate’s season. Additionally, the bad press surrounding the Mets’ second consecutive playoff collapse may factor into the vote. Santana was brought in to help get the Mets deep into the playoffs, but the Mets did not reach the playoffs. It is true that Lincecum’s and Webb’s teams both failed to make the playoffs, but neither the Giants nor the Diamondbacks were expected to be World Series contenders. The failure of the Mets to meet high expectations could hurt their ace’s chances of winning this coveted award.
Up Next
In part four of this series, San Francisco Giants ace Tim Lincecum will have his season reviewed and his Cy Young chances examined.
