2008 MLB Playoffs Picks: NL Central

Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals Compete for Division Title and Wild Card

Jul 18, 2008

At the All-Star break, the NL Central contained the three best teams in the entire National League, but only two of those teams can make the MLB Playoffs.

Halfway through the 2008 MLB season, the NL Central’s Chicago Cubs have the best record in baseball, and only one-half game separates the youthful Milwaukee Brewers from Manager Tony La Russa’s surprising St. Louis Cardinals. The race in this division will likely come down to the final week of the 2008 MLB regular season.

The Cubs are no fluke. As of the All-Star break, Chicago still had the highest scoring offense in the NL despite Alfonso Soriano, their leadoff man and best homerun hitter, missing time with injury. Shortstop Ryan Theriot stepped up to lead the team in batting average with a .320 mark. Furthermore, catcher Geovany Soto and outfielder Kosuke Fukudome certainly matched their high expectations by producing big enough numbers to get voted into the NL All-Star starting lineup.

The Cubs also have gotten good pitching. Their ace is unquestionably the perennial Cy Young Award candidate Carlos Zambrano, and their trade for the Oakland Athletics ace Rich Harden gives them an intimidating 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation for the second half. Furthermore, the resurgent Ryan Dempster actually led the team in wins at the break. Chicago also improved at closer in 2008 as a healthy Kerry Wood has performed admirably in that spot, accumulating 24 saves—good for second in the league.

After Milwaukee’s gamble on high-priced closer Eric Gagne proved to be a bust and last season’s breakthrough pitcher Yovani Gallardo went down with a season-ending knee injury, the Cubs became the clear favorite in the NL Central. Milwaukee General Manager Doug Melvin, however, assembled a team deep enough to withstand potential problems such as these. Salomon Torres has filled in nicely as the new Brewers closer, and young lefty Manny Parra has compiled a brilliant 8-2 record as of the All-Star break.

The addition of reigning AL Cy Young Award winner CC Sabathia makes the Milwaukee Brewers a favorite to secure the NL Wild Card and make the MLB Playoffs for the first time since winning the AL Pennant in 1982 before losing in Game 7 of the World Series to the St. Louis Cardinals. On the down side, the Brewers’ run differential at the break was only +13, which is not a good sign. Milwaukee needs to score more runs if they want to hold off the Cardinals and any potential surging NL East team for the NL Wild Card.

The 2008 St. Louis Cardinals are an enigma. They began the season with star pitchers Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter on the DL, and their batting order looked sketchy at best. However, Cardinals Pitching Coach Dave Duncan has worked miracles with Kyle Lohse (11 wins at the break), Todd Wellemeyer (7 wins at the break) and Ryan Franklin who has filled in for their injured and underperforming closer Jason Isringhausen.

The Cardinals 2005 NL MVP Albert Pujols has received help in the lineup from unlikely sources. Outfielder Skip Schumaker has developed into a fine table-setter at the top of the St. Louis lineup, and outfielder Ryan Ludwick has become a tremendous run-producer. The problem with the Cardinals is that too many of their players over-performed during the first half of the season. These players will likely cool down during the second half, thus allowing the Brewers to overtake them in the standings and potentially earn a birth in the 2008 MLB playoffs.

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