Math Says Mets, Royals are Destined for Title

World Series Win is in the Numbers

Mar 11, 2009 Chris Hannas

A perennial loser almost took football's top crown, but in baseball it is the year of the mildly downtrodden.

At least, that is according to math. The Arizona Cardinals were a few minutes from dropping the title of the team with the third-longest championship drought in the four major sports. But their 62-year wait did not fit in with the average National Football League drought of 25.8 years.

If statistics predicted the outcome of the season, it would have been the Oakland Raiders' turn to bust out of a 25-year slump.

MLB Title Drought Points To Mets, Royals

In that spirit, the 2009 Major League Baseball season is set up for the New York Mets or the Kansas City Royals--depending on how you round. The MLB average championship drought is the shortest in the major sports at just 22.4 years.

The Mets have not hoisted the championship trophy in 22 seasons, while the Royals have waited for 23 years without winning it all. The Detroit Tigers (24 years) and Baltimore Orioles (25 years) are in the neighborhood and could steal a World Series win if the math takes a more global view of losing streaks. The average drought for MLB, NFL, National Hockey League and National Basketball Association teams sits at 23.8 years.

So forget rooting for the Cubs to end their 100 years of historic lapses in excellence. Even the long-suffering Cleveland Indians can't be expected to capture any October magic and end their 60-year drought.

Phillies' World Series Win Closer to Average

Just look at last season, which featured the Philadelphia Phillies winning their first World Series since 1980. Their win, and the St. Louis Cardinals' victory two years before, represented a return to near-normalcy for baseball. Titles taken by the Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox and Florida Marlins served only to skew the data by eliminating droughts of just a few years and one of close to 90 years.

If there is anything math does not like, it's statistical outliers. That is why a return to prominence for the Mets, Royals, Tigers or Orioles should not surprise anyone this baseball season. Forget any arguments about small market teams struggling to compete in a tough economy or those going against juggernaut divisional rivals.

Those teams have math on their side, and especially in a sport like baseball, numbers are important. We track batting averages, home run totals, stolen bases and wins by pitchers. But it is only by looking at team's losing seasons in a broader context that it can be seen which squad should be expected to break out of their doldrums and return to glory. While a World Series win by any of the 30 teams, the unbiased numbers point to those whose times has statistically come.

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