Fantasy Baseball: Pitchers
Zito, Pettitte, Schmidt, Suppan, Batista and Other Free Agents
Although opening day of the 2007 Major League Baseball season is still over a month away, it is not too early to start thinking about your team. We don't mean the team you go out and spend your hard earned money to go see or watch every night on television. We mean the team that exists in the fantasy baseball universe, where home runs, batting average and wins count more than hustle and team chemistry.
As has been the case for many years now, there was plenty of offseason player movement around the league (and plenty of outrageous contracts!). A change in surroundings certainly has an effect on the numbers a player will put up, which will also translate into affecting his fantasy numbers.
Here is a look at on pitchers who changed their addresses for the '07 season and what you might expect them to do in fantasy baseball.
Barry Zito, San Francisco
Zito signed with the Giants for seven years and 126 million dollars. This for a guy who is a combined nine games over .500 in the last four years. The big contract might fool some fantasy owners into thinking Zito could be a Cy Young pitcher again. But beware, the numbers in 2007 will not be much better than the last four seasons. Zito won 16 games last year, pitching for an Oakland team that won their division. The pressure is on Zito big time this year. Not just because of the big contract, but because the Giants lineup is not as good as the A's was, leaving Zito without as much margin for error. Other than wins, Zito doesn't do much fantasy-wise. His ERA was a decent 3.83, but his WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) was a weak 1.40. He hasn't been a strikeout pitcher in a few years. Looking on the bright side, Zito is pitching in a different league, which could help him to a good first half of the season when opposing hitters will be seeing him for the first time. But at best he'll win 17 and possibly get the ERA to 3.50.
Andy Pettitte, NY Yankees
When the Yankees opted not to re-sign Andy Pettitte following the 2003 season, were there any Yankee fans happy about it? The Yankees have struggled to put together a solid starting staff since then and have been missing that go-to guy as a a pitcher in the postseason. Re-enter Pettitte for 2007. The reviews were mixed for Pettitte during his three year stint in Houston. He was banged up in 2004, but followed that up with a healthy and successful 17 wins in 2005. Last year he pitched a full season, but struggled to a 14-13 record, a 4.20 ERA and gave up a whopping 238 hits. Knowing age and health could be an issue, the Yankees gave him just a one year deal, but are paying him a cool $16 million for his services. Yes, age and health should be a concern, so don't hold your breath on a 21 season like 2003. But look for Pettitte to be rejuvenated by playing in the Bronx. He knows he's pitching for a team that - as always - will be in the hunt for a title. He knows what it's like pitching in New York, most especially in big games in October. The Yanks will slug their way to 100 wins most likely, with Pettitte getting around 17 or 18 of them. Last years' ERA and WHIP, his worst in both categories since 2000, will come back down again this year.
Jason Schmidt, Los Angeles
Like Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt signed a big contract (3 years, $47 million) off what he did three or four years ago. Schmidt made the bold move of signing on with the Giants' arch rival, the Dodgers. Schmidt is a nice addition to a team that has had a steady pitching staff the last few years. Unlike Zito, Schmidt's fantasy value should increase now that he has changed his surroundings. Schmidt managed only 11 wins in '06, pitching for a team that struggled to muster up much offense. His other numbers were pretty solid, posting a 3.59 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. The strikeout totals aren't what they used to be, but the 180 from last year isn't bad. The win total should be better this year, playing for a good Dodgers team. Dodgers Stadium might not be the pitchers park that AT+T Park in San Francisco is, but it is still fairly friendly to hurlers. Something in the area of 18 wins, a 3.25 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP is not unrealistic.
Gil Meche, Kansas City
Good for Gil Meche that he was able to somehow finagle $55 million over five years from the Royals. However, I think baseball fans all over the country collectively said, "55 Million??? For Gil Meche???". For better or worse, that salary is something the Royals will have to deal with. Fantasy owners will have to deal with a mediocore pitcher who is entering baseball purgatory and will probably find himself on the waiver wire of fantasy leagues throughout the land at various points this season. Meche is 55-44 over his six year career with an ERA of 4.65. Last season he won 11 games in 32 starts and his 4.48 ERA was actually the second best of his career. His 156 strikeouts were a career best. This move to KC does not bode well for fantasy or reality numbers. Recent history tells an ugly tale as pitchers with modest past success such as Mark Redman, Scott Elarton and Odalis Perez struggled mightily upon joining the Royals. Meche might win 10 games this year, but an ERA in the mid to high fours is likely. Needless to say, don't bank on Meche looking like a $55 million pitcher.
Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee
Sometimes in college basketball a player comes out of nowhere in the NCAA tournament and has three or four outstanding games and ends up getting drafted in the first round of the NBA draft because of that. Keeping that in mind, Jeff Suppan did the baseball equivalent in 2007. He had a decent year, winning 12 games and had an ERA a shade over 4. But it was his lights-out pitching performances in the Cardinals championship run that got him a four year, $42 million deal from the Brewers this offseason. The 32-year old Suppan is the epitome of average: a career record of 106-101 and an ERA of 4.40. But the Brewers, who hung around in the wild card race for much of the season, liked what they saw in his big game pitching abilities, and added him to a staff that already includes Ben Sheets and Doug Davis. The body of work for Suppan in St.Louis looks pretty good, back-to-back 16 win seasons. But for fantasy purposes, he is similar to Meche, in that in most leagues he'll be on and off the waiver wire, making only spot appearances. He's never been a strikeout pitcher and his WHIP has never been under 1.30. Glass half full - Suppan will build off his 2006 postseason success and be a staff leader. Glass half empty - the playoffs were an aberration. I say half empty. He'll win 12, have an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.40.
Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs
Ted Lilly decided to leave the cozy indoor confines of Toronto for the Friendly Confines in Chicago, a place where the winds swirl and baseballs fly...far. His career high 15 win 2006 earned him $40 million over four years from the Cubs. Lilly will now pitch for a team that will score a ton of runs and should contend for a division title, if not a league pennant, this season. Lilly faces pressure to succeed this year. On a pitching staff where the Disabled List is more of a hotspot than the pitcher's mound, Lilly needs to not only keep himself healthy, but he might need to be a number two behind Carlos Zambrano, depending on who else is able to stick through a whole season. Pitching for a team with the offensive firepower of the Cubs should help Lilly to at least match the 15 wins from last year, and possibly exceed that total. The 160 strikeouts in 181 2/3 innings are also encouraging. But he'll have to get used to pitching at Wrigley field, which will not be easy for a fly ball pitcher such as Lilly. So yes, expect a high win total, but know that you'll deal with the high ERA and WHIP as well.
Others to watch for...
Greg Maddux, San Diego - Maddux pitched very well for the Dodgers after being dealt from the Cubs. Pitching for a contender seemed to revitalize the veteran. Pitching now for the Padres at a great pitchers' park is a big plus for Maddux. He won't be a waiver wire fantasy player like last year. Draft him and keep him and he should win 15 with a sub 4.00 ERA this year.
Miguel Batista, Seattle - Batista was maddeningly inconsistent for the Diamondbacks last year after returning to his starting role. He has moved on to Seattle, where he'll remain a starter. Unfortunately, Batista really hasn't shown much in the last three seasons, as a starter or closer, so he's not worth a spot on a fantasy roster at the moment.
Randy Wolf, Los Angeles - Wolf has moved on from Philadelphia and joined the pitching rich Dodgers. The obvious problem for Wolf has been health, as he hasn't pitched a full season since 2003. He might be worth taking a gamble on in late fantasy rounds, but at the first sign of injury don't bother holding a spot for him.
Jeff Weaver, Seattle - Weaver may have saved his career by pitching brilliantly in the '06 playoffs and the Mariners are giving him $8.3 million this year because of that. Overall, his career has been a major disappointment and to think last year's playoff ride will continue into 2007 might be asking too much.
Read about Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Hitters
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