Clemens' Three Careers
Roger Was As Effective When He Was Young As When He Was Old
Clemens' career from 1984-1992 was not too different from 1997-2007. From 1993-1996, Roger had some problems.
Roger Clemens’ career can be divided into three parts. The first portion is from 1984-1992, when Clemens was young, the second portion is from 1993-1996, when he was having problems, and the final portion is from 1997-2007, when he no longer was young but might have been foolish. An examination of Clemens’ statistics is fascinating as well as revealing.
1984-1992
152 Wins, averaging 17 wins a season and 72 losses, averaging 8 losses a season.
1993-1996
40 Wins, averaging 10 wins a season and 39 losses, averaging 10 losses a season.
1997-2007
162 Wins, averaging 16 wins a season and 73 losses, averaging about 7 losses a season.
On the Disabled List
It is recognized that a pitcher’s won-lost record is at best a tenuous indicator of effectiveness. In 1993, at the age of 30,Clemens had his first losing season, but he was on the disabled list twice. During the strike-shortened 1994 season, he also spent time on the disabled list and the 1995 season opened with Clemens on the DL again. He didn’t make his first start until June 7. In 1996, Red Sox general manager Dan Duquette and Clemens were involved in a season long intrigue that focused on whether Roger would become a free agent at the end of the season, which was a distraction to both.
Hits to Innings Pitched
Hits allowed to innings pitched is one of the best measurements of a pitcher’s effectiveness.
1984-1992: 0.84 hits per inning pitched.
1993-1996: 0.88 hits per inning pitched.
1997-2007: 0.84 hits per inning pitched.
There is virtually no difference hits allowed to innings pitched in the three sections of Clemen’s career, and a statistically significant difference, as measured by a simple t-test, does not exist. Even in his “transition” years from 1993-1996, Clemens was difficult to hit.
Strikeouts to Innings Pitched
Strike outs to innings pitched is closely related to hits allowed to innings pitched for a power pitcher. Again, in each of his three eras, there was virtually no change in strikeouts to innings pitched, and no statistically significant difference exists.
1984-1992: 0.92 strikeouts per inning pitched.
1993-1996: 0.96 strikeouts per inning pitched.
1997-2007: 0.97 strikeouts per inning pitched.
During the final phase of his career, Clemens relied on the split fingered fast ball as his primary pitch, which partially explains the increased number of walks, but analysis of variance reveals that no statistically significant difference exists in walks allowed when one compares any of Clemens’ era.
Earned Run Average and Earned Run Average Plus
The final comparison is ERA, a solid but still somewhat suspect measurement.
1984-1992: 2.80 with 155 ERA+
1993-1996: 3.77 with 134 ERA+
1997-2007: 3.21 with 149 ERA+
ERA+ is the ratio between the league’s ERA, adjusted to the pitcher’s ballpark and the pitcher’s ERA. An ERA+ of less than 100 is below average. An ERA+ of more than 100 is above average.
Results
In summary, there were no statistically significant differences in H/IP, SO/IP, BB/IP, and ERA+ between the first Clemens’ era (1984-1992) and the final Clemens’ era (1997-2007). Beginning of story.
References:
- http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemero02.shtml
- http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/pitch_glossary.shtml
- http://www.baseballlibrary.com/ballplayers/player.php?name=Roger_Clemens_1962
- http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/VassarStats.html
