American League Championship Series Preview
A Breakdown of the ALCS matchup
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay is shooting for its first World Series in its first ever playoff appearance and the Red Sox are looking to continue their quest to being the first team do repeat as champions this century. For the Rays, the improbable run continues after they quickly dispatched the Chicago White Sox. Now they take on a Red Sox team that they beat 10 out of 18 times they played this season and have had bad blood with for years and this year was no different. Red Sox outfielder Coco Crisp charged Rays' Game 1 starter James Shields after Shields hit him with a pitch. Crisp, if you don't know or don't remember, took that as retaliation after he took exception to what he considered a dirty play by shortstop Jason Bartlett at second and took it out on second baseman Akinori Iwamura the next time he went into second base. It may seem like ancient history, but in the emotional time that is postseason baseball, anything can happen. One thing is for sure, however. These two teams won't be going out for beers after the game.
Offense
The Red Sox have lost Mike Lowell for the postseason as he tried to gut it out despite his torn labrum in his hip, but he was so limited, he just wasn't helping the team very much and wasn't helping himself by putting himself at risk of further injury. That means more at bats for either Sean Casey, Alex Cora or Mark Kotsay near the bottom of the order. Jason Bay has been exceptional in his first postseason, batting .412 with an AL-leading 1.356 postseason OPS. Jacoby Ellsbury has also been very good, but the Red Sox need to get more out of Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis, who are a combined .096 with two RBIs in 52 at-bats this postseason. John Lackey was not right when he said the Red Sox didn't deserve to win, but he was correct in saying the Red Sox were lucky to score as much as they did. They just took advantage of their lucky breaks. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, had no problem on offense in the ALDS, hitting .297 as a team and averaged more than five runs per game. Tampa Bay has had an extremely balanced attack with five starters (Carlos Pena, Dioner Navaro, Akinori Iwamura, B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria) holding an OPS of over 1.000.
Pitching
While as a whole, the Tampa Bay pitching staff has been very good, the same cannot be said for when they face the Red Sox. Rays starters James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine have gone a combined 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA against Boston this season. In fact, Sonnanstine's 13 scoreless innings actually drag that ERA down. Still, with a bullpen as strong as the Rays' (which Red Sox manager Terry Francona had deemed the best in baseball), Tampa Bay is never out of a game. Red Sox starters, conversely, have a 6-4 record with a 2.54 ERA against the Rays, including Tim Wakefield's 0-2 record and 6.00 ERA. The bullpen remains somewhat of a concern for the Red Sox, but they pitched very well in some extended use in the Angels sereis, posting a 2.40 ERA in the seventh inning on. There are still concerns about Beckett's health, so Paul Byrd could play a large role in long relief for the Red Sox.
Defense
This is where things get interesting for the Red Sox. The Red Sox have created a team that would make New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick proud. They're incredibly versatile. With Lowell hurt, the Red Sox used a lineup twice that had Keving Youkils at third and Mark Kotsay at first. They also have the option of using Sean Casey at first with Youkilis at third or they could keep Youkilis at first and shift Jed Lowrie to third, where he filled in for Lowell while he was on the DL earlier this year. Alex Cora would start at short in the latter situation. More than likely the Red Sox will mix and match based on matchups. Tampa Bay remains a very solid defensive team, especially on the infield. Jason Bartlett is a very underrated defensive shortstop and Carlos Pena is a gold glovwe calliber first baseman. Dioner Navaro has emerged a s good hitting catcher, but it can't be forgotten that when he first entered the league, ti was his defense that got him playing time. Between the two teams, only one harmless error was committed in the ALDS.
Prediction
Red Sox in seven. As even as these teams played each other in the regular season, it's hard to pick a clear-cut favorite on paper. In those situations, you have to look at the team that has not only been there before, but have had success. The Red Sox are the most successful postseason team of this decade, winning two World Series titles and posting a 32-15 (.681) playoff record since 2003.
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